This issue of the Journal will be remembered for two things: first, the first article we've seen in this space that uses brain scanning technology to help understand how behavioral finance issues work in the complex minds of clients and investors. We are starting to see these instruments used in financial research, and I have a feeling that they will eventually replace questionnaires and other imprecise instruments that have been used by researchers in the past.
Second, the article by Wade Pfau creates something new: an efficient frontier for clients in the decumulation phase of retirement, which mirrors the efficient frontier calculation for accumulators, but uses different parameters. Here, the client's Monte Carlo chances of failure is set at 10% (based on forward-looking returns), and then thousands of different portfolio mixes are modeled, giving the client a chance to select along a risk-reward spectrum that takes into account the severity of failure and the expected percentage of the initial portfolio that will be left to heirs. Clients have a choice of how much risk they want to take within a relatively safe parameter--and of course you can change those parameters (and, of course, the asset mixes) based on what you know about the client. As you read the review, you'll be surprised at the optimal portfolios, and you can click through to see the full scatterplot of portfolio mixes below the frontier.
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